Post by scully19 on Oct 22, 2019 15:44:03 GMT -5
I've been betting for the last couple years and have done pretty well so I'm still going and pumping up the action a bit. A large part of my success int he betting has been done with the over/unders where I pick a few teams after looking at rosters and listening to Bill Simmons Over/Under podcast with Joe House and Ryen Russilo.
I mentioned in the game thread tonight but to expand on the Pelicans, the podcast guys all said them breaking 38.5 wins was a lock but I didn't buy it personally. My biggest problem being Zion and his health concerns (he's too damn big and fast that he's going to get hurt). It seemed that many people agreed with them and the betting went big on the over. Well then Zion was out for 6-8 weeks and I put a lot of money on the under and it gets a high pay off because everyone else but the over.
I also always try to bet against any team who has a strong end of the season where people project that this is what their actual team winning rate should be. Teams like the Jazz always had a soft end of their season would win a bunch of games and then would be projected to keep winning like that, ignoring that the opponents were not good. Miami had the run at the end of one season and got huge projects as well.
Also, in the playoffs any team that was really disappointing would for some reason get lower regular season projections even though they are not the same thing. Look at the Raptors and Blazers after they got swept. They smashed the over the next year.
Some of the bets I like this year in over/under:
Pelicans - 38.5 - Under
Hornets - 23.5 - Under - dumpster fire team
Warriors - 48.5 - Under - I believe in Steph and Draymond, but the rest of the team is barely NBA players. Steph twists 1 ankle and they will lose. Their defense will be at the bottom of the league, and they will not rush back Klay after what happened to KD. I actually also put money on them missing the playoffs at 4 to 1 which seems like a high payout for Stephs ankles.
Rockets - 53.5 - Over - They got 53 last year after a garbage start, they are going to be motivated this year to win as much as they can after getting a bad lineup going into the playoffs. Plus the team is mostly the same.
Pacers - 47.5 - Under - I struggle to understand this number. Oladipo is going to miss multiple months and then when he comes back he will take the whole year to get better and won't be himself until next like like everyone else who had stuff like this happen.
Jazz - 53.5 - Over - These guys are new to legit title contenders and they are going to try to win every game they can. This means little to no load management, just win chasing.
Knicks - 27.5 - Under - They won 17 games last year. Why does anyone think they can win 11 more games this year? They have 8 PFs on their roster and no good players.
Some I feel good about but less confident:
Nuggets - 53.5 - Over - They got 54 wins last year, continuity and a young team with internal development should mean they reach the mark again.
Grizzlies - 26.5 - Under - The are a terrible team in an impossible conference so they will be up against great teams constantly.
Magic - 41.5 - Over - They got 42 wins last year, and while this is a case of not betting on the team who ends the season well, the over/under number does not seem to reflect their end of the year. Plus I think it was more valid than normal since they had only made adjustments to how they played defense that lead to such an improvement. Plus they got stomped by the champs after taking game 1 and i hope that motivates them for internal improvement with continuity.
Wizards - 26.5 - Under - They should be battling for the bottom of the east, but because this will be a battle there should be a few teams all trying to be the worst and canceling each other out. These guys seem to be the worst though. They have Beal and then garbage.
Philly - 54.5 - Over - 51 wins last year so they need to improve there. It sounds like the main guys have improved and the roster as is will be a tough defense every night without fail. Also sounds like these guys are going to be aiming for the 1 spot in the East having blamed playing away on game 7 as part of the reason they lost vs the Raptors.
That's all for these over/unders. Betting for these closes tonight once the game starts I believe. We can go over other interesting bets as well if anyone cares to.
I mentioned in the game thread tonight but to expand on the Pelicans, the podcast guys all said them breaking 38.5 wins was a lock but I didn't buy it personally. My biggest problem being Zion and his health concerns (he's too damn big and fast that he's going to get hurt). It seemed that many people agreed with them and the betting went big on the over. Well then Zion was out for 6-8 weeks and I put a lot of money on the under and it gets a high pay off because everyone else but the over.
I also always try to bet against any team who has a strong end of the season where people project that this is what their actual team winning rate should be. Teams like the Jazz always had a soft end of their season would win a bunch of games and then would be projected to keep winning like that, ignoring that the opponents were not good. Miami had the run at the end of one season and got huge projects as well.
Also, in the playoffs any team that was really disappointing would for some reason get lower regular season projections even though they are not the same thing. Look at the Raptors and Blazers after they got swept. They smashed the over the next year.
Some of the bets I like this year in over/under:
Pelicans - 38.5 - Under
Hornets - 23.5 - Under - dumpster fire team
Warriors - 48.5 - Under - I believe in Steph and Draymond, but the rest of the team is barely NBA players. Steph twists 1 ankle and they will lose. Their defense will be at the bottom of the league, and they will not rush back Klay after what happened to KD. I actually also put money on them missing the playoffs at 4 to 1 which seems like a high payout for Stephs ankles.
Rockets - 53.5 - Over - They got 53 last year after a garbage start, they are going to be motivated this year to win as much as they can after getting a bad lineup going into the playoffs. Plus the team is mostly the same.
Pacers - 47.5 - Under - I struggle to understand this number. Oladipo is going to miss multiple months and then when he comes back he will take the whole year to get better and won't be himself until next like like everyone else who had stuff like this happen.
Jazz - 53.5 - Over - These guys are new to legit title contenders and they are going to try to win every game they can. This means little to no load management, just win chasing.
Knicks - 27.5 - Under - They won 17 games last year. Why does anyone think they can win 11 more games this year? They have 8 PFs on their roster and no good players.
Some I feel good about but less confident:
Nuggets - 53.5 - Over - They got 54 wins last year, continuity and a young team with internal development should mean they reach the mark again.
Grizzlies - 26.5 - Under - The are a terrible team in an impossible conference so they will be up against great teams constantly.
Magic - 41.5 - Over - They got 42 wins last year, and while this is a case of not betting on the team who ends the season well, the over/under number does not seem to reflect their end of the year. Plus I think it was more valid than normal since they had only made adjustments to how they played defense that lead to such an improvement. Plus they got stomped by the champs after taking game 1 and i hope that motivates them for internal improvement with continuity.
Wizards - 26.5 - Under - They should be battling for the bottom of the east, but because this will be a battle there should be a few teams all trying to be the worst and canceling each other out. These guys seem to be the worst though. They have Beal and then garbage.
Philly - 54.5 - Over - 51 wins last year so they need to improve there. It sounds like the main guys have improved and the roster as is will be a tough defense every night without fail. Also sounds like these guys are going to be aiming for the 1 spot in the East having blamed playing away on game 7 as part of the reason they lost vs the Raptors.
That's all for these over/unders. Betting for these closes tonight once the game starts I believe. We can go over other interesting bets as well if anyone cares to.