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Post by scully19 on Jan 15, 2020 22:16:07 GMT -5
Siakam just gets 29... That was close lol.
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Post by sutureself on Jan 16, 2020 0:13:20 GMT -5
Haha yeah turns out just betting Raps alternate spread like you did was a safer bet and more lucrative. I wasn't expecting Siakam to only get 4 rebounds, and I wasn't expecting him to put up only 30 minutes again. I don't think he was on a minutes limit, I think the Raps were just leading by so much that they were willing to sit him the entire 4th. Luckily for me OKC made a bit of a comeback and he got in again for the last 5-6 minutes.
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Post by scully19 on Jan 18, 2020 11:55:54 GMT -5
Toronto at Minny, both teams on back to back, both teams had to travel for it, they had a much tighter game to play in so played heavier minutes. I'll take Raptors alternative spread of winning by 8.
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Post by scully19 on Jan 18, 2020 22:28:36 GMT -5
Stressful last shot the Minny guy took for no reason at the end of the game that would have caused me to lose the bet if it goes.
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Post by scully19 on Jan 20, 2020 9:54:46 GMT -5
Raptors 8 point favorites tonight vs the Hawks, I'm pushing the alternate spread of 12 on this. Hawks have been getting manhandled lately and I think the Raptors will remember how close last game with them was and come out early to beat them down.
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Post by sutureself on Jan 20, 2020 15:57:09 GMT -5
I haven't bet NBA for the past few games because my funds were all tied up in NFL, but after a win this weekend I'm back. New highest alternate spread at halftime was Toronto -6.5 so I took a small live bet on that for fun. You've been dead on with all your other picks lately so might as well
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Post by sutureself on Jan 20, 2020 15:59:56 GMT -5
When Atlanta went on another small run to start 3rd they offered me alternate spread Raptors -4.5 at 2.1 to 1...guess I'm in for a bit more now. Haha. They definitely know how to bait me
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Post by scully19 on Jan 21, 2020 8:32:11 GMT -5
When Atlanta went on another small run to start 3rd they offered me alternate spread Raptors -4.5 at 2.1 to 1...guess I'm in for a bit more now. Haha. They definitely know how to bait me This is something I like to do when watching games live, if there is a big lead in the first half to bet on the comeback. It is often easy to comeback from 10 to 15 down in the first half but it can change the lines pretty large. Raptors winning by 5 messed up your first bet so hopefully you covered with the rest.
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Post by sutureself on Jan 21, 2020 10:12:58 GMT -5
When Atlanta went on another small run to start 3rd they offered me alternate spread Raptors -4.5 at 2.1 to 1...guess I'm in for a bit more now. Haha. They definitely know how to bait me This is something I like to do when watching games live, if there is a big lead in the first half to bet on the comeback. It is often easy to comeback from 10 to 15 down in the first half but it can change the lines pretty large. Raptors winning by 5 messed up your first bet so hopefully you covered with the rest. Yeah 2nd bet at -4.5 was twice as large as the first bet, so I covered and more. For some reason the live moneyline on Spurs vs. Suns went to 2.75 to 1 betting on the Spurs late in the 4th. I think either the game was tied or Suns were up by 1 when I made the bet, made a decent amount on that too. That game could've went either way but I was a bit surprised to see the betting algorithm favouring the Suns so heavily just because they were at home, even though they've been worse as a team than the Spurs all year.
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Post by scully19 on Jan 22, 2020 10:33:34 GMT -5
What started as a sure thing has me so nervous about the Pelicans. Zion comes back tonight and I'm afraid the Pelicans might be going on a run soon. FiveThreeEight has them predicted to win 40 games which would lose me the over/under as well as 61% chance to make the playoffs which would then lose me that bet as well. It uses a lot of info based on pre-season destruction Zion did which means it is a little messy, but still... I really need a good run from the Spurs/Blazers/Grizzlies. Uggh.
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Post by sutureself on Jan 22, 2020 16:42:31 GMT -5
I'm doing a parlay tonight on Spurs (at Pelicans), OKC (at Magic) and Nuggets (at Rockets) that would pay out 23 to 1 if it hits. Obviously I mostly just lose these types of parlays but it's fun to put five bucks on a lottery ticket every once in awhile. I'm also doing small bets on each one individually. I feel like all of those teams are pretty evenly matched. Obviously home court matters but I feel especially like Rockets have really struggled lately and 3.84 for Nuggets moneyline is a little absurd, even if deep down I know Rockets will probably win.
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Post by scully19 on Jan 22, 2020 17:24:40 GMT -5
How do you setup a parlay? Haven't seen that yet, although won't often do it I really like the alternate spread value and success rate they seen to play. At 2.4 ish times the payoff, hitting 10 of 24 breaks even (41.66%), 11 (45.8%) or higher you're making money. At 1.9ish you need to hit 10 of 19 (52.63%) to break even and 11 of 18 (57.89%) to win money. Those are pretty significant jumps and to me it seems worth it to go for those when the numbers look in line to you. I wouldn't do it every game, only when i like the matchup and the rest, or lackthereof for the opponent which usually has a impact in the 4th quarter scoring if on a back to back.
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Post by sutureself on Jan 22, 2020 19:28:50 GMT -5
You do a parlay on sportsinteraction by just adding multiple bets to your bet card that you see in the top right hand corner before you hit submit; it doesn't specifically say 'parlay' anywhere but that's essentially what it's doing, and it will multiply the payout based on all the individual modifiers. So it's a big payout if you win every bet in the parlay, nothing if any of the conditions don't hit.
Something I've had success with sometimes is, if you see a heavily favoured team going against a really bad team, they might have like a -14 point spread, and moneyline only pays out 1.2 or so. Doesn't seem worth the risk to bet $10 and get $12 back, it's barely worth it if you win and you lose it all if there's a miracle upset. But say there's one game where you're taking alternate spread at 2.4, and then two other games like Bucks vs. Cavs and Heat vs. Knicks that each have moneyline on the heavily favoured teams like Bucks and Heat at 1.2. If you do a parlay of the one alternate spread game and then moneyline on the other two heavily favoured teams, you can do 2.4x1.2x1.2, for a payout of 3.4. Maybe it's not worth the risk of throwing the whole bet out if Cavs miraculously beat the Bucks (or whatever). But if you feel super confident of the winner and don't want to worry about the spread, those types of moneyline parlays have worked out for me before.
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Post by scully19 on Jan 22, 2020 21:22:59 GMT -5
That's certainly an interesting way to play the game, I like it.
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Post by scully19 on Jan 25, 2020 10:36:13 GMT -5
Tried my first parlay picking 4 winners from yesterday and got them all. Only put a very small amount of it unfortunately.
Fyi keep an eye out on the Pelicans, it looks like there is a Zion effect going on where too many people are betting for the prisms to win that they were favored by 4 against the Nuggets, so I took Nuggets to win. I imagine this might keep going for the next few games of theirs.
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Post by scully19 on Jan 28, 2020 14:15:12 GMT -5
Looking at Prop bets tonight for Raptors, Lowry is paying out at 2.4 for hitting over 2.5 3's. FVV is paying 2.25 hitting over 2.5 3's. Both of them average more 3's than that per game (Lowry=2.9, FVV=2.8) and are playing the Hawks against the worst defensive PG in the league. Seems like a decent chance that one or both hit this mark.
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Post by scully19 on Jan 30, 2020 11:24:56 GMT -5
I played around a little with a mixture of parlay and alternative bet and the values can really go up a lot. Combining 3 alternative bets for tonight (Toronto over Cavs, Boston over Warriors, Philly over Atlanta) i put down 5 bucks and it'll pay out 65. It's obviously pushed the odds out but to me it doesn't seem impossible that each of those teams dominate their games and is a huge return. Winning 1 of these bets every once in a while will pay out very nicely. We'll see.
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Post by sutureself on Jan 30, 2020 19:58:08 GMT -5
I played around a little with a mixture of parlay and alternative bet and the values can really go up a lot. Combining 3 alternative bets for tonight (Toronto over Cavs, Boston over Warriors, Philly over Atlanta) i put down 5 bucks and it'll pay out 65. It's obviously pushed the odds out but to me it doesn't seem impossible that each of those teams dominate their games and is a huge return. Winning 1 of these bets every once in a while will pay out very nicely. We'll see. Haha...hope I didn't jinx you because I put small moneyline bets on all the massive underdogs (Hawks, Warriors, Kings). Hawks are the only one I feel even slightly confident about but I also bet Hawks were going to get +34 wins this season and have had Trae Young two straight years in fantasy, so I've been over-estimating them all season.
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Post by sutureself on Jan 31, 2020 10:08:26 GMT -5
Trying to decide if it's worth going Raptors moneyline 1.5 to 1 tonight. Raptors have shown they can win consistently but I've narrowly lost my last last two bets against the spread with them because they're letting bad teams hang around and play them close. Actually both times the 'regular' line would've won for me but I lost by a point or two because I did the alternate spread. The lines only -5 against the Pistons so maybe I'll just go regular spread rather than alternate spread.
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Post by sutureself on Feb 1, 2020 12:43:23 GMT -5
Discovered something interesting last night. I did a three way parlay, -6.5 Rockets over Mavs, -5.5 Raptors over Pistons, -4.0 Thunder over Suns. Thunder won by exactly 4 so I worried it would void the whole parlay. But it only voided the Thunder part of the parlay so it still paid out at roughly 3 to 1 rather than 7 to 1.
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Post by sutureself on Feb 1, 2020 14:37:41 GMT -5
This could be a dumb move. I’ve been up and down with small bets all season. Decided to put all the money I’ve made this year into a single bet, Hawks moneyline 2.6 to 1 at the Mavs. Mavs are without Doncic and resting Porzingis. If the Hawks mess the up for me I’m probably out of the betting game for good this year
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Post by scully19 on Feb 1, 2020 15:28:30 GMT -5
Ballsy but seems like a good play. Good luck
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Post by sutureself on Feb 1, 2020 15:38:24 GMT -5
It probably doesn't help my gambling decisions that I watched Uncut Gems last night
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Post by sutureself on Feb 1, 2020 22:11:57 GMT -5
Loooooool. I give up. Retired. Done. What a sorry ass team.
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Post by scully19 on Feb 2, 2020 0:26:18 GMT -5
Loooooool. I give up. Retired. Done. What a sorry ass team. well shit. Hawks are such a weird team. Very up and down. To get blown out by the Mavericks without anyone is crazy.
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Post by sutureself on Feb 2, 2020 1:07:03 GMT -5
The funny part too is I was patting myself on the back and thought I was a genius when the Hawks jumped out to a 15-5 lead. I can't tell if Lloyd Pierce is just a terrible coach or if the young players on that team are just babyfood-soft because they were forcefed minutes without ever having to earn anything.
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Post by scully19 on Feb 2, 2020 1:27:38 GMT -5
The funny part too is I was patting myself on the back and thought I was a genius when the Hawks jumped out to a 15-5 lead. I can't tell if Lloyd Pierce is just a terrible coach or if the young players on that team are just babyfood-soft because they were forcefed minutes without ever having to earn anything. probably both. They don't seem organized or give full effort. A team full of just young players had no chance either though, you need championship veteran players to show them and keep them honest. Anytime someone suggest to blow it up slap them. We have the perfect blend of youth and veteran leadership that shows how you need to play. Plus an organized coach.
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Post by scully19 on Feb 7, 2020 15:31:59 GMT -5
I know you're probably out from betting anymore but I thought I would post this. I'm not sure if I'm being greedy here too much, but following the bet alternative + parlay having alternatives in a night means me betting 5 bucks pays out 28.45 to 1 so 142.23 bucks. I know getting 4 can be tough for sure but it feels more likely than 28 to 1.
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Post by sutureself on Feb 7, 2020 19:14:10 GMT -5
Nice good luck! I am done for this season. I was up $400 at the start of the NFL playoffs (from small bets on CFL, NFL and NBA). Then I lost roughly $200 betting against the Titans twice and then the rest of it on that Atlanta bet. So I just figure it's time to slow it down a bit. I've won a couple thousand the past few seasons which makes me start getting greedy and act like I'm some sort of genius. Atlanta bet was a good wake up call. Because sometimes when I'm betting $10 or $20 at 2.4 to 1 I'll sit there thinking "Wow just think how much better it would've been if I bet $100 or $200 instead!" But that can obviously get you in trouble pretty quick. So I'm going to take a few months off and maybe put a deposit in when CFL starts up again. But I'll still be following the lines out of habit and rooting for you
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Post by scully19 on Feb 7, 2020 20:28:34 GMT -5
Ya that's good to get a wake-up call every now and again. I get the same way, you build up the wine by being conservative and then think you can win more bring more, get a few loses in a row and you run out of money.
I'm looking that way this year with my over under bets which ii killed in previous years so I have been betting more to cash in and this year I'm looking terrible with a lot of close ones on track to go the wrong way. I'll need some help towards the end of the year for sure.
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