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Post by haisan on Mar 15, 2023 2:49:10 GMT -5
Even on the homer front, I don't think they're really bad, like, say, Boston. And they call out our guys for whining and whatnot.
Was a bit shocked to learn Jack is only 60, though. I thought for sure he was getting closer to 70.
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Post by haisan on Mar 19, 2023 21:22:47 GMT -5
Well, one good win (versus Denver) and one good loss (versus the Bucks ... but the Raptors held their own). Now the Raptors have just the 14th-hardest schedule remaining.
The Hawks, otoh, have the 6th hardest. With Toronto just half a game back, there's still a chance we might make it to 8th and get home court for our play-in game.
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Post by haisan on Mar 20, 2023 16:50:02 GMT -5
This made me lol. And maybe gasp a little.
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Post by freewheel on Mar 21, 2023 14:10:07 GMT -5
Well, one good win (versus Denver) and one good loss (versus the Bucks ... but the Raptors held their own). Now the Raptors have just the 14th-hardest schedule remaining. The Hawks, otoh, have the 6th hardest. With Toronto just half a game back, there's still a chance we might make it to 8th and get home court for our play-in game. What we need is to somehow get a matchup with the Nets either in the play-in or if we're really lucky win the play-in and face the Nets in the 1st round. That is really the only chance the Raps have of winning any games in the playoffs. I don't think this team can beat anyone else.
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Post by scully19 on Mar 21, 2023 14:24:01 GMT -5
That luck would have to be off the scale for the Raptors to get 7th and the Nets get 2nd somehow. Even Nets 4 Raps 5 is unheard of luck. To be clear I put the Raptors in the same category as you there, I think that even winning the play-in is not a foregone conclusion, but after that they would be massive underdogs. That being said, if i could pick any of the top 3 to face it would have to be Boston right now. They are reeling, seems like their players are hurt including the key part of their defense in Robert Williams and Marcus Smart (rumor is he is hiding an injury because he has been very poor lately). Add in the unproven coach and who knows.
No I wouldn't pick the Raptors to beat them, but this is their best chance. That might just mean winning 2 games and getting a moral victory lol but still.
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Post by haisan on Mar 22, 2023 20:54:13 GMT -5
Looks like the Raptors are determined to play the play-in game on the road. Half the team came down with the ouchies vs. Indiana and we lost. Not much time to get ahead of Atlanta is they do want to try playing at home.
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Post by haisan on Mar 27, 2023 1:29:06 GMT -5
I was listening to the latest Bill Simmons podcast, and there was some usual talk about how Toronto plays good defense but has offensive problems, while Chicago can always get a basket... But the numbers this year are actually the opposite! Toronto has a 12th-best offense and 16th defense, while Chicago is 24th offense and 5th defense. Funny.
DeRozan on a good defensive team? But I guess we lived through that a few years ago...
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Post by haisan on Mar 29, 2023 3:38:32 GMT -5
As much as I would love the Raptors to get SGA (and I would be happy to give up Scottie for him), I wonder if Lillard might be the most gettable superstar this summer. He's getting older and gets injured, but this year was his best yet for points-per-game and PER. Clearly, he has a couple of quality seasons left. And clearly he's the kind of difference-maker Toronto needs. And apparently, he's finally tired of losing in Portland. Such a lovely thought...
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Post by scully19 on Mar 29, 2023 9:44:14 GMT -5
As much as I would love the Raptors to get SGA (and I would be happy to give up Scottie for him), I wonder if Lillard might be the most gettable superstar this summer. He's getting older and gets injured, but this year was his best yet for points-per-game and PER. Clearly, he has a couple of quality seasons left. And clearly he's the kind of difference-maker Toronto needs. And apparently, he's finally tired of losing in Portland. Such a lovely thought... Hard out. He was very effective this year, might even be the next one and the one after, but he will be poison on your franchise after that for another 3 years i believe. You're doing this trade to finish off and be a championship contender. Unless we get Lillard for cap relief players basically i don't see how this brings us there.
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Post by scully19 on Mar 30, 2023 9:37:48 GMT -5
6 games left, @philly, @hornets, @hornets, @celtic, @celtics, Bucks. 1.5 games back of 7th Heat, 3 games back of 6th Nets. To get 6th they'll probably have to win out which seems unlikely, unless the Nets completely collapse but their competition isn't exactly tough.
Philly, Celtics and Bucks are still all fighting for positioning. Philly is now 2 games back of the Celtics but Celtics have the tie-breaker so effectively 3 games back. Celtics and Bucks tie-breaker still to be decided in tonight's game. If the Bucks win that game it goes a long way to helping the Raptors. Bucks will have locked up first at that point and the final game of the year probably doesn't matter. Further, Philly and Celtics play right before the Raptors play the Celtics (b2b for them) so now 2nd and 3rd could already be decided as well which at that point means the final 3 games won't matter to either team.
Heat play Mavs, @pistons, @76ers, @wizards, Magic. Mavs should be a tough game as they desperately need to win. Pistons lol. 76ers could go either way. Wizards will be a cake walk. Magic won't be hard but might be really easy if they just sit everyone depending on positioning come the final game. So Heat should be expected to go 2-3 without trying, and realistically 3-2 pretty likely at a minimum.
Raptors have the tie-breaker so to catch the Heat they need an equal record. That means they need to have a record of 5-1 the last 6 games, that seems unlikely, given Celtics might rest only 1 of 2 games and Philly is likely going for the win still in their next game.
So to get 8th they need to beat the Hawks and Bulls. Hawks own the tie-breaker, Raps do against Bulls plus a lead, so let's just look at the Hawks. @nets, Mavs, @bulls, Wizards, 76ers, Celtics. First 3 are tough, next 3 are decent chance they are all resting with potential they aren't (but then aren't against us either so that hurts us more). I would imagine Hawks go 3-3 which means Raps go 4-2 to get 8th. Really might come down to Raptors needing to 5-1 for 7th or 4-2 for 9th with no chance at 8th.
Side note, they can still get the 9th best odds with a quick tank job lol.
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Post by haisan on Mar 30, 2023 21:14:06 GMT -5
Bucks losing tonight didn't do the Raptors any favors...
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Post by scully19 on Mar 31, 2023 13:17:19 GMT -5
Bucks losing tonight didn't do the Raptors any favors... no it did not. Celtics have the tie breaker now so might be gunning for the 1 seed. Raptors winning tonight could help their case a bit to give Celtics breathing room but that also means Bucks need to get some room too. Celtic play a back to back tonight followed by another back to back which we play them last there so I'd be surprised if they play everyone for that game.
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Post by fenris77 on Mar 31, 2023 13:55:04 GMT -5
Yeah, the Celtics will be tough even if they don't play everyone. We'll see. I just want at least one good playoff series, even if the Raps don't win it.
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Post by freewheel on Mar 31, 2023 14:05:42 GMT -5
I suspect the only "playoffs" we will see is a one game playin.
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Post by haisan on Mar 31, 2023 21:52:40 GMT -5
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Post by fenris77 on Apr 2, 2023 22:29:23 GMT -5
I have a lot of love for Nurse, but I trust the Org to make the right call there. Very few coaches don't have a shelf life of some kind. I would be more than happy to have him stay, but it'll be whatever it'll be.
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Post by scully19 on Apr 3, 2023 6:53:32 GMT -5
I'm with you, I think nurse can definitely stay but he needs to develop as a coach. He needs to look at what this year was a make changes on how they play. Something I don't think he will develop though is playing wm youth. All these amazing development players we used to have I realize stopped with Nurse. It was actually Casey giving them a chance to play, Nurse hasn't. That's not a good coach to have for a development team. Players like Banton should get a steady 10 to 15 min a game without looking over their shoulder to give them a chance. If he's not willing to develop players then he should be done.
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Post by haisan on Apr 3, 2023 9:14:21 GMT -5
No, the more I think about it, the more I think it's time to be moving on from Nurse. I just see too many red flags. I think he's probably a better coach with veterans, and starting a head coach with Lowry and Kawhi must have been about perfect for him (and smart young guys like FVV was back then).
I'm not rabid about it. But if the front office sees someone else they think would be better for this bunch and for developing Scottie, I think it might be a good idea to pursue that direction.
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Post by scully19 on Apr 3, 2023 9:25:42 GMT -5
While we're at it, while I absolutely love Pascal I think it might be time to move on from him too. If we want Scottie to develop to where we want him to then he needs to be bumped up in the rotation. With the addition of a pick and roll player like Poeltl it has made FVV the second primary ball handler and Scottie at 3 is too low for him.
The more this season goes on the more sad I am we didn't do this at the deadline so that we can also pair another high pick even if it isn't Wemby.
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Post by haisan on Apr 3, 2023 9:32:40 GMT -5
Otoh, the Raptors have slowly been improving their stats over the last 20 games or so. Now they have the NBA's 10th ORat and 14th DRat ... But they're still 3 games behind where they "should" be, given their numbers.
14th is a lot better than their defense was a little while ago. But I'm thinking it's also probably a big reason why OG hasn't gotten more traction for defensive player of the year.
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Post by haisan on Apr 3, 2023 9:33:55 GMT -5
While we're at it, while I absolutely love Pascal I think it might be time to move on from him too. If we want Scottie to develop to where we want him to then he needs to be bumped up in the rotation. With the addition of a pick and roll player like Poeltl it has made FVV the second primary ball handler and Scottie at 3 is too low for him. Yeah, their development does seem to be out of sync. Either Scottie for a veteran star, or Pascal for a promising young guy(s).
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Post by scully19 on Apr 3, 2023 9:53:05 GMT -5
The FO did talk about evaluating their off season options after they have the proper C in the lineup. As you said they are improving but this is not going to be a contending team either. Personally I have my eye on Portland who have switched to tank again and are desperately trying to build a contender around Lillard. Siakam for Sharpe, their high pick this year (which I'm sure won't be top 2 or 3 otherwise they probably don't do it) and maybe Anfernee Simmons. I know they went after OG for their pick last year so they are definitely in on moving that stuff to get talent for Lillard so we'll see how something like this trade would look to them.
Other option, they probably very much want to get off Nurkic too, maybe we become money obsorbing: Siakam for Nurkic, Sharpe, cap filler, this year's pick plus a couple future picks. Point is, you give me Sharpe plus the pick this year and there you go, tons of development and future talent we can build around with FVV staying to be the teacher because i very much don't believe in a team going entirely young (Houston stories this year of them being a total shitshow are an example of why). FVV, Sharpe, Scottie, OG, Poeltl with Banton, Precious, Koloko off the bench getting guaranteed minutes. GTJ could stay as well, money might become an issue at some point here and they certainly won't be going over the cap for this team so I'm leaving him on the fence to see how the rest of it shakes out.
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Post by haisan on Apr 3, 2023 10:18:18 GMT -5
Personally I have my eye on Portland who have switched to tank again and are desperately trying to build a contender around Lillard. Siakam for Sharpe, their high pick this year (which I'm sure won't be top 2 or 3 otherwise they probably don't do it) and maybe Anfernee Simmons. I know they went after OG for their pick last year so they are definitely in on moving that stuff to get talent for Lillard so we'll see how something like this trade would look to them. I like your thinking. But tbh, I haven't figured out why so many people are so high on Sharpe. Some good scoring games at the end of the season (especially in a season where scoring is up so much in general) doesn't impress me much. And he doesn't really do anything else but score, at least not yet. I'm not saying he won't be a good player. Or an excellent player. I'm just more skeptical myself. But I like your thinking. We definitely need scoring, especially shooting from distance. And breaking up the logjam at forward only makes sense.
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Post by scully19 on Apr 3, 2023 21:19:32 GMT -5
Big night tomorrow night for the east playoff picture. Raptors and Heat should have a gimme if they take it serious with Hornets and Pistons respectfully. Hawks play the Bulls so obvious important game for both and affects Raptors.
The top is big too. Bucks 2 games up on Boston and only play the Wizards while Boston plays Philly. Boston loses and they should be 3 games back with 4 to go so might as well pack it in for the game the next day against the Raptors. Philly would be 2 games back at that point but Celtics would still own the tie breaker so effectively 3 games up on the 76ers. Maybe Celtics pack it in again the game after. Then bucks final game with nothing to play for sit everyone. Going to be a weird stretch.
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Post by haisan on Apr 4, 2023 21:43:43 GMT -5
Tankathon is so funny right now, with its Strength of Remaining Schedule page. Atlanta, ranked 2nd with a 0.591 SOS, well ahead of the No. 3 team (New Orleans) at 0.571. But in No. 1, it's the Raptors, with a SOS of 0.696. Best two teams in the NBA left on our schedule for the last three games. Nice going. www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength (Of course, who knows who'll dress for those games and how they'll go ... but still...)
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Post by scully19 on Apr 5, 2023 21:03:15 GMT -5
So basically set as the 9th seed in the play in. What a mistake this season was. 5th last in sight with generational talent and 2 stars and we choose to go for it for this which is basically our best care scenario.
I kept on bouncing back and forth but the right choice is clear now and it's not this. Trade Siakam and run through Scottie way more and finish 5th last and you have a solid future. This.... This is just sad. Can't even beat Boston with most of their team resting.
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Post by haisan on Apr 5, 2023 21:21:19 GMT -5
Yeah, disappointing season. Funny, though, considering how happy I was to get 0.500 from this team for so many years. The last decade really has been good-to-excellent.
Who knows? Maybe we'll lose the play-in game, qualify for the lottery, and win it anyway. That would be hella amusing.
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Post by haisan on Apr 6, 2023 8:06:48 GMT -5
Funny night. After that shitshow versus the Celtics, at long long last, the Raptors FINALLY have a better defense than offense. DRat is 11th in the league, while ORat slipped to 12th.
And with the general improvement in both offense and defense, the Raptors expected W-L record is now FOUR games behind what the stats suggest it should be. FOUR!
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Post by Pseudonym on Apr 8, 2023 1:25:54 GMT -5
Even if the team wasn't erm, less than the sumn of its parts, there would still be a ton of things to worry about, to the point it would be just shocking if something didn't go wrong. We still have that, but bad vibes and no draft pick. Maybe Nurse needs to go, but the roster construction is fubar - it's basically impossible to win a game making only like 6 threes a game. Then the defensive system of gambling and aggressive help....Peak GSW, that 83 win team had a point differential still of "only" 11.63. The 2018-19 Bucks had one of 8.87. They were a 60 win team. One of the best regular season teams ever, or a truly "elite" team, only won games by 3 possessions. You know where I'm going with this, right? The Raptors, as part of their system, make the kinds of systemic gambles that routinely put those points in the balance. If we're lucky, that would only be across only 3 defensive possessions, which is 0-9 points, right? League average is 114.9 ORTG right now, in an average situation, that's 3.42 points a game. Not factoring in this embarrassing loss, they had a point differential of +1.6. Conversely, the Celtics this year have one of +6.4. We aren't taking about a truly set defense. We are talking about aggressive doubles, totally giving out for steals, etc. Leading to open shots and layups. Or, situations in which the 114.9 ORTG skyrocket. It could be argued that due to the abysmal shooting and subsequently horrid halfcourt offense, those gambles are needed. But it's janky, and even a veteran team would need to totally in sync. Few teams can play defense like they did against the Kings. It's a Catch-22. In a roundabout way, NN is undermining how much he cares about defense; having longbois defend guys straight up with Yak as a deterrent should be enough defensively. It's why across history, coaches have been conservative on the defensive end, especially championship teams, right? OTOH, FVV and GTJ are a weak defensive backcourt in general, without those gambles and FVV's increasingly heavy feet. Should've just tanked
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Post by Pseudonym on Apr 8, 2023 1:44:24 GMT -5
Found this on RealGM. (As I've matured, I think I actually appreciate it more. It's a gulity pleasure to lurk after a horrible loss)
"13-0 vs 4 tanking teams
27-41 vs rest of the league.
1-10 vs top 3 East teams."
Matches the eye test. And what I just wrote particularly applies to good teams, almost scaling up. So Toronto is last year's Bulls. And the Bulls need to blow their team up.
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