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Post by haisan on Sept 26, 2022 9:59:14 GMT -5
Hey guys. I thought the last general chat was getting a bit long in the tooth ... and a bit long. So, since today was media day for the new season, I'm starting a new one. Let this be the place for all your Raps fun that's not big enough for it's own discussion.
So, to kick things off~
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Post by scully19 on Sept 27, 2022 21:00:44 GMT -5
I'm getting pumped already. High hopes for Delano and Juancho should be a steal even if he doesn't carve out regular time. I'm probably getting too hyper about the team again and not realistic but this team feels really deep this year with all the end of bench guys being young and improving I really hope they get trusted to play minutes this year.
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Post by haisan on Sept 28, 2022 8:45:03 GMT -5
I'm getting pumped already. High hopes for Delano and Juancho should be a steal even if he doesn't carve out regular time. I'm probably getting too hyper about the team again and not realistic but this team feels really deep this year with all the end of bench guys being young and improving I really hope they get trusted to play minutes this year. I hope you're right. But I was feeling optimistic around this time last year, too. Lol. I'm way too much of a homer to be objective at all.
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Post by scully19 on Sept 28, 2022 9:48:18 GMT -5
Haha ya that's exactly my point too. I thought we were looking pretty deep early in the year last year and then Nick ended up not wanting any of them. I am giving some decent faith into players like Delano, Juancho, Justin, Koloko (although not too much from him I'm just excited to see a big man protect the rim). It's hard to even pick out 10 guys to play normally with the addition of Thad, who really came on and fitting in in the playoffs, and Otto Porter.
FVV, GTJ, OG, Siakam, Scottie being the perceived starters leaves us with Precious, Boucher, Porter, Thad, and then probably a drop to Banton, Malachi, Birch although I expect Banton to be up in that first group this year. Even if both Banton and Flynn don't earn time they don't need it with Scottie expected to take backup PG duties and we would still have 5 rotation pieces left. Then our deep bench seems to have some potential as well with Juancho (i expect), Koloko and Justin (I expect).
I just feel really good about this team.
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Post by scully19 on Sept 29, 2022 9:03:51 GMT -5
Taken from One Defining Number For Every Team In the NBA’s Eastern ConferenceTalk about being versatile defenders, OG lead the league 2 years ago, last year it is Scottie while OG got 4th. Having multiple guys like this is so useful to the team and especially our strategy. This obviously doesn't include effectiveness, both OG and Scottie were 111 last year in Def Eff, right at the team average which was worth 10th in the league. 111 sounded so high but this league scoring just keeps going up somehow 111 is not bad. Defense is such a hard metric to find a good look at when not using synergy or whatever that thing is that everyone has to pay for that tracks players.
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Post by haisan on Sept 29, 2022 10:22:50 GMT -5
Yeah, as the saying goes, "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." I loved advanced stats ... but I also recognize there's a lot of noise in the data and it's often hard to know what it all "really" means.
But it's going to a really interesting year for a team built like this. If they can also defend the skittering lightning-bug little guards and the big bigs. But it's a really fascinating concept ... not perfect defenders, but having nowhere to go for relief. Just a blob of arms and elbows everywhere.
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Post by scully19 on Sept 29, 2022 10:52:02 GMT -5
Yeah, as the saying goes, "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." I loved advanced stats ... but I also recognize there's a lot of noise in the data and it's often hard to know what it all "really" means. But it's going to a really interesting year for a team built like this. If they can also defend the skittering lightning-bug little guards and the big bigs. But it's a really fascinating concept ... not perfect defenders, but having nowhere to go for relief. Just a blog of arms and elbows everywhere. I was listening to a podcast with Hollinger and he was asked what statistic he would hope to see if he could have any and the other guy responded for something offensive and Hollinger was just begging for anything defensive that can close the gap, that with Offense you can use a bunch of different things to get a good idea of offensive production but defense is so far away from that same level. It's very hard to argue with that assessment. I just have so much faith in this team and their development history. What killed the Raptors last year, especially in the playoffs, was needing good 3 point shooting to surround the team and I really want to see how that has developed because that might be the biggest driver in opening lanes and really improving the offense from that because that is how the schemes are built and the talent needs to catch up. FVV is one of the top of the league, GTJ is also very good but everything below them needs to improve. There were some stats during the regular season that when they weren't on the floor the team was far below average in 3's. These 2 i don't think we need to worry about. Precious I think proved last year at the end of the year that he really learned to shoot and as long as he keeps it up we're good. Otto should be good, not much to worry about there. Improvements needed: OG last year dropped to 36% so we need him to go back up to 40% range. Scottie is an obvious need to make a big step. Siakam should take a step here as well but his impact is probably smallest with him being more on ball, although a deadly pull up 3 would really help open the floor for him. Boucher started terrible and ended at 30% for the year when he was at 38 the year before so hopefully he goes closer to that. Thad did it a bit but he needs a corner 3 like PJ Tucker on offense when they aren't using him in the high post for passing. Dalano has a long way to go and while I expect improvement I imagine he will not be reliable this year. If the team gets consistent production from the guys good at 3's and generally improves where they need to I already see this as a much improved offensive team. Last year they were 14th offensive efficiency and 10th defensive efficiency and I would imagine both of those are expected to improve this year with better depth and a general run it back lineup of people who now know how to play in Toronto plus having Siakam not only ready to go injury wise but also with his first proper off season in years. I'm sure I'll be let down somewhere in my expectations but man looking at this team and what i think of them development wise feels really good right now.
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Post by scully19 on Sept 29, 2022 10:55:51 GMT -5
Plus this:
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Post by haisan on Sept 29, 2022 11:09:49 GMT -5
I was listening to a podcast with Hollinger and he was asked what statistic he would hope to see if he could have any and the other guy responded for something offensive and Hollinger was just begging for anything defensive that can close the gap, Paging Boris and Dean Oliver's Project Defensive Stat Scoresheets! forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?1974-Project-Defensive-Stat-ScoresheetIt was so fun, back when Boris was giving us those defensive breakdowns based on the Oliver system (even though we were record-breaking shit defense at the time).
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Post by freewheel on Sept 29, 2022 11:20:56 GMT -5
I still think this season lives or dies based on guard depth and centre development. We still have no one to match up with the MVP calibre centres scattered around the league and if Vanvleet runs out of gas for the playoffs again we are sunk. Good progression from Banton and Koloko would offer some more clarity for the future.
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Post by haisan on Sept 29, 2022 20:56:25 GMT -5
Last season we were: • 30th -- dead last! -- in defensive rebounding • 29th in assists • 28th in 2pt shooting% • 20th in 3pt shooting% • 20th in FTA
So ... yeah ... Lots of room for improvement on the offensive side. And rebounding (although we were 2nd for offensive rebounds ... god knows we needed the additional shots). Seems to me the Raptors need to put more pressure on the other teams in general. Push to the basket more, draw more fouls. Move the ball around.
Otoh, Golden State had a worse offense than us and was 26th for FTAs, so what do I know? But unlike us, they were efficient at scoring, were really good on the defensive glass and terrible on the offensive glass. So ... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Post by Money_Ball on Oct 3, 2022 14:30:19 GMT -5
Interesting that MIA was the anti-wingspan team and still finished top of EC. We're just not very skilled. Shooting, passing, ball handling, all that sort of stuff, we're just kind bleh. The only question is can Precious, Barnes, Banton follow the same path as Siakam did? To go from raw project to skillful offensive Star player? I want to believe.
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Post by haisan on Oct 4, 2022 9:37:59 GMT -5
Huh. GMs voted Toronto as best home court advantage in the NBA.
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Post by scully19 on Oct 4, 2022 9:49:37 GMT -5
Based on last year it was, this year the rules were still in place but i got the impression they might have just been removed now so i bet this vote would go different...Unvaccinated basically can't travel here for a game because they would have to isolate. That would have been a huge home court advantage against the Celtics and why they were ok playing against the Nets others were avoiding, they wanted nothing to do with Brown + it sounds like a couple others being unable to play in the series.
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Post by sandman on Oct 4, 2022 21:44:08 GMT -5
No way guys, it's the Drake effect.
Everyone afraid of Drake.
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Post by scully19 on Oct 5, 2022 7:32:37 GMT -5
Listening to Zach Lowe for the last week he kept on mentioning Toronto and how high he is on this team. So today he goes onto Bill Simmons podcast they both massively talked up the Raptors, nice to hear for sure and worth a listen. Starts at around 35 min mark. The segment is called 'are we sure...' so the ask by Bill is are we sure the Raptors and Nuggets aren't in the conversation for the 1 seed.
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Post by haisan on Oct 5, 2022 9:18:09 GMT -5
Listening to Zach Lowe for the last week he kept on mentioning Toronto and how high he is on this team. So today he goes onto Bill Simmons podcast they both massively talked up the Raptors, nice to hear for sure and worth a listen. Starts at around 35 min mark. The segment is called 'are we sure...' so the ask by Bill is are we sure the Raptors and Nuggets aren't in the conversation for the 1 seed. Yeah, I was pleasantly surprised by that conversation, too (especially the Simmons side of it). There's like some kind of weird memory hole with the Raptors ... people are beginning to recognize that they're legit, but the team and their players so rarely turn up in rankings (Siakam at 30th on ESPN!). But Lowe and Simmons were also right about how stacked the East is this year. I could imagine the standings being really jammed together around the All-Star break. I could envision things going in all sorts of directions with no one really dominant. Except Milwaukee, I guess (if not dominant, at least really good).
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Post by scully19 on Oct 6, 2022 7:43:40 GMT -5
I could see Milwaukee not being the 1 seed, they are still entering the year with a not fully healthy Middleton and they spent their money on guys not coming back until mid-year. I could see them getting out of the gate slow and if anything else happens early on i could see it being very slow.
I'm with them on the other side as well, I think Philly is my favorite to win the East. As long as the huge caveat of Embiid not missing a ton of time, I think he wants to win MVP and Harden is on a 1 year deal and spent his summer getting in shape to get one more big contract from Darryl, plus they signed some good guys to help the team. Not sure about them winning the title because that relies on consistent playing by Embiid and Harden not crapping the bed, but regular season they are going to be racking up wins.
I like their whole thinking though, Milwaukee, Philly, Boston, Toronto top 4.
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Post by haisan on Oct 6, 2022 9:14:25 GMT -5
Just two weeks away from the real season starting. Getting exciting now (if a bit trepidatious). Last year I *nearly* predicted 47 wins, before getting chicken and downgrading to 45. But still, that was the highest guess on this board, if I recall correctly.
I'm going to go crazy and guess 50 wins for this season. Even though I'm not totally happy with our team, I do think we have enough good pieces for Ujiri to pull off a quality trade, if we need one. I'm guessing a slow start and picking up speed as the season goes on.
And for my crazy prediction: I'm predicting that if the Raptors are in the East's top-3, then Koloko will make the Rising Stars series during All-Star weekend (when 12 rookies are picked). He might even make the rookie 2nd team at the end of the year. Part of that is based on injuries (bye Chet), and partially because I think the Raptors are going to play him more than most people are thinking now.
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Post by haisan on Oct 6, 2022 19:42:34 GMT -5
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Post by haisan on Oct 8, 2022 9:11:18 GMT -5
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Post by Money_Ball on Oct 12, 2022 19:32:18 GMT -5
Pretty amazing that in the last 9 years the Raptors only once won less than 48 games for the season. Good times.
I'm going to be negative Nancy here and predict they take a slight step back with 45 wins. I don't see them in the top 4 at all, I think they're probably a play-in this year, 7th in the East.
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Post by freewheel on Oct 13, 2022 9:18:42 GMT -5
I'm in the same boat. The Raptors haven't changed enough to predict some great level of improvement or decline. My expectations are just to make the playoffs. Missing the playoffs would be a disappointment, but I wont be expecting to advance.
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Post by scully19 on Oct 13, 2022 10:04:27 GMT -5
This year does seem like it is going to be a bloodbath. Philly, Bucks, Celtics should all be towards the top, Miami/Toronto/Atlanta/Nets/Cavs all fighting for 3 spots, the other 2 are in the play in. Every game is going to matter for these spots for sure. I would tend to put Toronto/Cavs/Miami as the favorites with Nets as a wildcard that could end up at the top of the East or in the play-in which is crazy. I would think personally they end up at the top but can't trust this team enough to bet on it. Raptors could be both a better team this year and finish worse in the standings.
I will say I have watched next to NO preseason games this year, and put very little stock in it. The terrible Raptors teams would routinely win most if not all of the pre-season and then get smoked in regular season. It is a place to get reps but not put in their main strategies yet with players playing with different that normal people and a small sample size to tell about things like shot improvement. We can start judging for the first games of the regular season.
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Post by scully19 on Oct 13, 2022 14:16:23 GMT -5
So Nick Nurse just said that he figures Juancho "Bo Cruz" will figure into the rotation, especially early in the year with Otto and Boucher injured. I guess that all but confirms he's making the squad. Down to 1 spot now between DJ wilson, Justin, Josh Jackson and Gabe Brown and right now it sounds like it's between Justin and Josh. Nick has said he is likely to prefer offense from this last spot which might signal Josh has the inside track. Justin having some very unfortunate injuries this year trying to prove himself.
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Post by Money_Ball on Oct 13, 2022 19:36:42 GMT -5
This season it could also be one of those things where the 4th seed finishes only a couple games ahead of the 7th seed. Injuries are always tough to deal with, but I think it'll be even more challenging this year. Nobody can afford to do any load management... unless they're playing the Utah Jazz.
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Post by scully19 on Oct 14, 2022 8:23:52 GMT -5
Or Spurs who I think are currently worse than the Jazz.
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Post by Money_Ball on Oct 15, 2022 9:24:47 GMT -5
Didn't want to over hype Koloko but after 4 pre season games it sure looks like he'll at least become a solid bench guy. First Banton and now this guy. I now value 2nd round picks more than I ever have before.
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Post by scully19 on Oct 15, 2022 9:56:04 GMT -5
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Post by scully19 on Oct 15, 2022 9:58:44 GMT -5
Didn't want to over hype Koloko but after 4 pre season games it sure looks like he'll at least become a solid bench guy. First Banton and now this guy. I now value 2nd round picks more than I ever have before. sure seems like the type of guy the Raptors just have more Intel on than other teams and I expect he was extremely likely to be picked at their original draft spot before the Thad trade. He might be that 7 foot guy that fits perfect on this team.
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