Betting Thread

Heat were underdogs but it wasn't an extreme line. Pretty sure it was Bucks -5, not sure what Heat moneyline would've paid out, my guess is probably 2.6 or 2.7? I didn't actually look at the moneyline.

Series betting odds are up. Only offering 3.8 for Miami winning the championship, but they're offering 10 for Miami 4-2 and 7.25 for Miami 4-3. So $20 on Miami would pay out $76, but $10 on 4-2 would pay out $100 and $10 on 4-3 would pay out $72.50. I honestly think it's going to be Miami in 6 but I'm thinking of putting 10 each on 4-2 and 4-3. Can't imagine a sweep or 4-1.

I'm probably wrong (I usually am) but I feel like LeBron has a long and storied history of finding ways to lose in the Finals. He's once again on a team with iffy depth outside of the stars at the top, playing against an opponent that's been playing more cohesively together as a team. Spoelstra found a way to neutralize Giannis and I think he knows LeBron well and will find a way to neutralize him here as well.

Ya not a great sign that LeBron's teams usually lose game 1 as well but won in domination and largely due to Davis which is the biggest reason I think the Lakers will win, he's just such a hard matchup for everyone.

Seems to me this playoff was pretty easy to pick once the Clippers folded their tent. They let one get away.

I think this is one of the easiest playoff runs a team has ever had and its not because the Lakers are historically good. I think their opposition has been historically bad.

I'm going to blame the massive rash of injuries for my bad bet and not admit I made a dumb decision. Let me have this one

New season, new betting.

A few takes on this one:
MVP:
Kevin Durant - 11 to 1 odds. Take a year off and people forget who you are and underestimate you. I think he is wanting to prove how good he is again and it's not 6th best odds to win the MVP.
Damien Lillard - 17 to 1 - My longshot if you call it that pick is Lillard. If the Blazers finish in the top 4 in the West then the only person getting credit on the Blazers is Lillard. I think he would be one people would like to pick if he can just get his team to that level this year. Good lineup looks like this could be possible.
Most Improved:
I'll homer pick OG - 21 to 1 - I hope a step plus potential increase in role can bring him up.
DPOY - Can't stop that homer feeling - OG - 51 to 1 - Fine, I don't think he is going to win this award but 51 to 1? No way! Because we do not have star C like we normally do I think he could very well be in line to finish games at C, perhaps we get a death lineup like the Warriors with OG at C and Draymond getting all the credit for making it possible. Something like this is not out of the realms and would certainly give a story here to get him closer. 51 to 1 is a straight up disrespect for a guy like OG that some very high quality deep dive reporters think might be the best individual defender in the game.
Make the Playoffs:
Nothing great here honestly, last year's Warriors to not make the playoffs at 4 to 1 looked massive to me, nothing there like that this year. Due to the play-in tournament this year I'm going Warriors again who pay a decent 1.55 for a yes to make it. I think if they make it to that tournament they have the experience to play well under that pressure scenario.

Over/Under:
Big Category here as every team is open to pick unlike the above awards that have less realistic choices.
So what i did was use last years winning percentage before the bubble (during bubble to me has way too much noise to count as a good gauge on actual play) and adjusted what each team would have won in 72 games. I made a fair amount of picks but i think there aren't a lot of locks which is unfortunate.
Some picks i like (before podcast listening):
Team - Over/Under - Last year wins - Pick - Reason
Bucks - 50.5 - 58.7 - Over - Are Bucks going to be much worse in the regular season? I don't see it. Maybe a little bit as they are hurting a bit in depth but they are still going to be solid all year again I bet.
Philly - 42.5 - 43.2 - Over - Last year was a garbage year for the 76ers and they STILL would hit the over. Now they look to be better setup to be successful so i see them bumping this up. (Odds got real low on the over because this seems to be common throught)
Nets - 45-5 - Doesn't matter - Over - I'm just big on the Nets this year, they've sold me. Only a massive fall caused by huge injury or Kyrie i think is going to stop them. Defense not great or terrible, offense will be stupid.
Magic - 30.5 - 33.2 - Under - Odds are actually high to pick this but this team is not good, top teams got better and this team got worse and lost probably their best player for the whole year.  Aren't making top 8 in the East and they are going to be dropping and losing more than last year.
Knicks - 21.5 - 22.9 - Under - They are going to go into rebuild proper and that means trying to lose and play their youth to develop. Plus the team is put together terrible with 0 outside shooting.
Pelicans - 33.5 - 31.5 - Under - Part of the reasoning is the odds got big the other way, paying 2.1 that way. I think their spacing won't be great and I still fear Zion being able to play without being injured.
Thunder - 20.5 - Doesn't matter - Under - Again, really good odds at 2.25 and I just think they are going for last place. Very little talent ready to play now that isn't Shai and he needs good players around him.
Jazz - 41.5 - 45.1 - Jazz hit the over easily last year and didn't really change, in fact I think got slightly better.
Blazers - 39.5 - 31.6 - Over - They are getting picked for 6th in the West and they had a great off season and have one of their extremely important guys back for the whole year in Nurkic and the other moves were great to surround these guys.
Wolves - 29.5 - 21.4 - Under - Are they getting 8 games better than last year? This is a garbage team, Russell is an average offensive player who does nothing on defense, going with Towns who also sucks. This is going to be my popular pick for games total points, they will score a ton and get scored against a ton.

Bill Simmons Massive Over/Under podcast picks (nearly 3 hours - Updating as I listen):

I wish I could but when I checked earlier today it looked like sportsinteraction took down all bets for that game. Never mind looks like it's back up with an adjusted line

I wasn't sure if I was even going to bet this season but I deposited some cash and put it on OKC. Game's canceled so the bet was void but looks like I'm back in the game, baby! What can possibly go wrong! (don't answer that)

I bet half of my OKC deposit on Raps moneyline 2.25 in the 3rd quarter when they were tied with the Pelicans. Inauspicious start but I’d do it again

I'm tempted but Portland are -7.5 so not a lot of payout, and I don't trust them alternate spread. I got burnt too many times by the Nets playing scrappy with a skeleton team in the bubble

I won Pistons +16 but lost moneyline so it was basically a wash. OG lost me money though on a player prop. I know he's streaky but I didn't think he'd go 29 minutes without a single rebound.

I've been consistently winning lately on player props lately, usually through 2 different ways:

1) sometimes Sportsinteraction won't change the prop line quickly enough for a backup who gets elevated into the starting lineup. For example when Kyrie Irving suddenly disappeared while Kevin Durant was already out, Caris Levert was clearly going to be the number one option for a game or two but they hadn't adjusted his combined PTS/ASSISTS/REBs prop from his usual backup minutes numbers, took over 23.5 combined for an easy bet.

2) sometimes Sportsinteraction just straight up makes errors on props and doesn't change them in time. For example tonight I noticed they set Tyler Herro's combined PTS/ASSISTS/REB at 34.5, and then also set Olynyk's bet at 34.5 right below that. Olynyk doesn't average anywhere close to that so it was an easy under tonight.

Props have been pretty slim pickings lately...I noticed after they messed up the Olynick prop they started offering way less props in general. I decided to put down money on the MVP race instead. I put money on LeBron when he was 10 to 1. The odds are 8.5 to 1 now. But I think LeBron's on a mission, he seemed bitter that he didn't win MVP last year and he wants to be the oldest ever player to win the MVP award. In general he's sitting out less back-to-backs and doing less load management, and I think it's important to him as a legacy thing to win MVP this year rather than take it easy and rest up for the playoffs. And I think at the end of the year he'll be recognized as the best player on an elite team.

I also did smaller bets on Jokic at 9 to 1 since he's averaging a triple-double, and also a little bit on Embiid. I don't think Embiid's a serious threat to win it but it was 14 to 1 so I figured why not, throw $5 on there. Doncic and Giannis are currently the frontrunners but I think there are compelling reasons why neither might win it. Mavs are under .500 and Doncic has been a bit inconsistent even though his overall numbers are stellar. Giannis should probably win it but I think there's a bit of voter fatigue there when he already won it last year and his overall numbers are down this year compared to last.

Edit: I didn't seriously consider Harden because he was still on the Rockets when I made those other bets. I think he's hurt his image enough he won't win MVP this year. But it's 23 to 1 right now...wondering if I should also throw a couple bucks on there in case he keeps tearing up the league with the Nets. I figured Durant, Harden and to a much lesser extent Kyrie might cancel each other out in the MVP race.