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Post by scully19 on Apr 13, 2023 8:19:45 GMT -5
Off Season started last night after the loss to the Bulls. It is now extremely clear that those asking for the tank when the Raptors were 6th and could get 5th were clearly right. Portland starting tanking way later than us and managed to get 5th, so we would have had that for sure.
Now that we are here we are looking for the ideal scenario going forward and that was for OKC to win their game as well. I thought yesterday that either 9 or 10 to win against the Wolves would do it, but I that was wrong because the Pelicans had a higher record than the Raptors so if they moved up it would have changed nothing. OKC did win though, so now we have 2 shots to go up slightly in percentage and if both win we go from 13th pick to 11th. 11th isn't 5th but every spot we move up is 1 player not picked in front of us at the very least. I mentioned what the odds chance from for the 2 picks above but this was wrong because OKC and Bulls were tied they split the odds. Actual odds are:
Seed Chances 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
11 20 2.00% 2.20% 2.45% 2.76% - - - - - - 77.59% 12.60% 0.40% <0.01%
12 15 1.50% 1.66% 1.86% 2.10% - - - - - - - 86.10% 6.70% 0.07%
13 10 1.00% 1.11% 1.25% 1.43% - - - - - - - - 92.88% 2.34%
This is not significant difference, but our odds at the top double for each spot and we are likely to finish with 11th pick vs 13th. Hoping for Bulls and OKC to win the next game.
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Post by zugzwang on Apr 13, 2023 8:57:05 GMT -5
I think we need to get a team together so we are ready to immediately start pursuing Diar DeRozan in free agency.
She might be reluctant to come up here after the way things ended with her Dad, and she will likely have a lot of suitors, so we should be prepared to find an alternate screaming 9-year old to fill her shoes. Looking back, it's a travesty that Bobby let us go an entire season without one.
Are there any rules against getting a choir full of them? I know people say it's a talent game, but sometimes you can compensate by committee. And perhaps with lots of sugar. I am thinking Slurpee's and M&M's.
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Post by freewheel on Apr 13, 2023 11:22:50 GMT -5
No too concerned about where we pick unless lightning strikes and we move way up. Doubt it. This summer will be all about the free agents and trades that are made. Three or even four starters could be gone, and maybe should be. Almost certainly the Raptors will be taking a step back next season.
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Post by scully19 on Apr 13, 2023 11:50:47 GMT -5
Where we pick can always matter, I believe we lost a tie breaker in the year we drafted Terrance Ross and wanted Harrison Barnes that went one spot sooner. The DeRozan draft we were 2 picks away from Curry. 1 or 2 spots might not be a lot but the person you want might be taken right ahead of you so best to be a high as possible. I don't really bank on the odds getting us a top pick I agree, but I do want as high a pick as possible.
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Post by sutureself on Apr 13, 2023 12:35:41 GMT -5
In Masai We Trust and all that, but the Thad Young trade still bothers me last year. I'm sure he's a good locker room vet but it felt weird to give up draft capital for yet another 3 and D (with no actual 3) type SF/PF tweener when we badly needed depth at guard and C. Moving back 13 spots from 20th overall to early 2nd wasn't the end of the world. And I'm sure hindsight is 20/20 and maybe they would've picked a bust at 20 anyway. But Walker Kessler at 22 was exactly the type of C that they hoped Koloko could step in and be right away, and maybe we wouldn't have had to give up yet another 1st for Poeltl if we were developing a guy like Kessler. Or even Nembhard at 31 could've been a solid Canadian backup. Instead we're just giving away picks for marginal improvements when we're more than one guy away from contending.
I think a '24 pick for Poeltl is a solid move in isolation, but with the Stepien rule you're locked into not being able to deal away a '25 pick either now, and it makes it harder to put together a bid for a star player if one ever becomes available. So instead we get caught in this constant cycle of tinkering and making minor adjustments to keep being a treadmill team.
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Post by freewheel on Apr 13, 2023 12:39:42 GMT -5
Dealing Saikam or Anunoby shouldn't be a minor adjustment, not to mention the possibility of a new coach, Vanvleet, Trent leaving. Even Poeltl has a choice to make. Tinkering isn't an option IMO.
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Post by sutureself on Apr 13, 2023 12:42:02 GMT -5
If we're going to blow it up and tank next season it was a bad choice to deal away our 1st for a solid role player like Poeltl. There's light protections on the pick (top-6 protected) but we could end up giving away a high end pick in the 7 to 10 range and still not get anything to build with after we blow it up.
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Post by scully19 on Apr 13, 2023 12:45:41 GMT -5
In Masai We Trust and all that, but the Thad Young trade still bothers me last year. I'm sure he's a good locker room vet but it felt weird to give up draft capital for yet another 3 and D (with no actual 3) type SF/PF tweener when we badly needed depth at guard and C. Moving back 13 spots from 20th overall to early 2nd wasn't the end of the world. And I'm sure hindsight is 20/20 and maybe they would've picked a bust at 20 anyway. But Walker Kessler at 22 was exactly the type of C that they hoped Koloko could step in and be right away, and maybe we wouldn't have had to give up yet another 1st for Poeltl if we were developing a guy like Kessler. Or even Nembhard at 31 could've been a solid Canadian backup. Instead we're just giving away picks for marginal improvements when we're more than one guy away from contending. I think a '24 pick for Poeltl is a solid move in isolation, but with the Stepien rule you're locked into not being able to deal away a '25 pick either now, and it makes it harder to put together a bid for a star player if one ever becomes available. So instead we get caught in this constant cycle of tinkering and making minor adjustments to keep being a treadmill team. I know Walker Kessler was probably the perfect pick we lost out on but don't forget how random our front office is and that they might have liked koloko more anyways and would reach for him there. That trade then means nothing for draft...I personally agree that I think they would have picked Walker but I always leave that shadow of doubt. After the playoffs last year I really thought Young would get way more use this year, don't know why it changed so much. I don't think this team is ready for a star move. We have a definite issue with how this team fits and plays together that the play is rebuild not double down and trade youth and picks for a star.
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Post by scully19 on Apr 13, 2023 12:47:38 GMT -5
If we're going to blow it up and tank next season it was a bad choice to deal away our 1st for a solid role player like Poeltl. There's light protections on the pick (top-6 protected) but we could end up giving away a high end pick in the 7 to 10 range and still not get anything to build with after we blow it up. the reports for next year from Givony make it sound like early returns are next year will be absolutely garbage, he was saying everyone should just trade their picks next year so you don't have a really expensive pick that isn't worth it. Think Bargnani year but worse. If they keep Poeltl, even if it is just for trading him, then they upgraded that pick
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Post by sutureself on Apr 13, 2023 14:45:20 GMT -5
In Masai We Trust and all that, but the Thad Young trade still bothers me last year. I'm sure he's a good locker room vet but it felt weird to give up draft capital for yet another 3 and D (with no actual 3) type SF/PF tweener when we badly needed depth at guard and C. Moving back 13 spots from 20th overall to early 2nd wasn't the end of the world. And I'm sure hindsight is 20/20 and maybe they would've picked a bust at 20 anyway. But Walker Kessler at 22 was exactly the type of C that they hoped Koloko could step in and be right away, and maybe we wouldn't have had to give up yet another 1st for Poeltl if we were developing a guy like Kessler. Or even Nembhard at 31 could've been a solid Canadian backup. Instead we're just giving away picks for marginal improvements when we're more than one guy away from contending. I think a '24 pick for Poeltl is a solid move in isolation, but with the Stepien rule you're locked into not being able to deal away a '25 pick either now, and it makes it harder to put together a bid for a star player if one ever becomes available. So instead we get caught in this constant cycle of tinkering and making minor adjustments to keep being a treadmill team. I know Walker Kessler was probably the perfect pick we lost out on but don't forget how random our front office is and that they might have liked koloko more anyways and would reach for him there. That trade then means nothing for draft...I personally agree that I think they would have picked Walker but I always leave that shadow of doubt. After the playoffs last year I really thought Young would get way more use this year, don't know why it changed so much. I don't think this team is ready for a star move. We have a definite issue with how this team fits and plays together that the play is rebuild not double down and trade youth and picks for a star. You're right, Koloko checks too many boxes, it's almost like the sort of prospect profile you'd make to catfish Masai: same hometown as Siakam in Cameroon, latebloomer/started playing basketball later than most prospects, crazy length/wingspan. I guess there's still time for him to develop into a legit player and the hit rate is never going to be strong late 1st/early 2nd most years. Just felt like there were more useful players we missed out on between 20-33 than usual.
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Post by blueyoda on Apr 13, 2023 18:04:51 GMT -5
I wanted to calm down after yesterday's game, so waited 24 hours. But I'm still pissed . Not that we lost and I'm glad we did and get the ping pong balls. Worse would have been to get to the 8th seed and get swept by the Bucks. But the way to lose that game was shameful. I do hope that it means a major reset, not tinkering. As this point, I am ready for youth movement and growth, even if it means more losing. Hopefully we don't end up with a 130M FVV contract this offseason.
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Post by scully19 on Apr 13, 2023 18:05:00 GMT -5
I didn't touch on Nembhard at all but he's one I think they really wanted too and wouldn't be surprised if they wanted him over Koloko. Do hard to say what they wanted for sure but it's clear they liked those 2a lot.
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Post by haisan on Apr 13, 2023 20:14:19 GMT -5
Yeah, I have no idea what's the best path forward at this point. I'll be happy if Gary walks ... I never liked his game. Moving our forward logjam for a good shooting guard is the most obvious need, but there are all sorts of problems with this roster and how they're coached. I just fear it's going to be one of those depressingly quiet offseaons, where our best talent leaves and we only sign another Otto Porter type. But I guess we're a couple of months away from seeing any changes, even in a best-case scenario.
(Unless they fire Nurse tomorrow ... that would be an interesting shot across the bow for the future).
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Post by freewheel on Apr 14, 2023 13:14:55 GMT -5
I actually do like Trents game but I cant respect a player that misses 15 games every season and he isn't even 25 year old. He could never play enough games in a row to be depended on. I wont miss that. Problem is that we don't just need Trents replacement, we need 3-4 guards that can all shoot.
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Post by haisan on May 27, 2023 11:39:41 GMT -5
A bunch of stuff floating around the web tubes today about the Raptors' FO being unsure what direction to move in the future. basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/271710/Raptors-Believed-To-Be-Still-Debating-Which-Direction-To-Take-With-RosterBut tbh, given our talent level, roster construction problems, and other variables, this doesn't shock or upset me much. I don't view it as dithering, but as recognition that there'a a lot of variance here, and things could go in very different directions based on many different factors. "Butterly flapping its wings in Brazil causing a hurricane in Mexico" kind of stuff. Do we want to keep FVV? But what if someone wants FVV but can't sign him outright, so offers a sign-and-trade? Who wants Pascal and for how much? Who wants OG and for how much? I'm guessing there's a lot more interest in OG and what he brings to the table and his contract, but Pascal is the old man, so the better piece for us to move. Lots of variables, not just one or two issues to resolve. But I do think that once the changes start, there's going to be a lot of cascading and we'll see the future plans very quickly.
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Post by scully19 on May 27, 2023 13:47:53 GMT -5
Bucks are hiring Adrian Griffin, ex Raptors assistant and was the only assistant that was contacted to come back if he didn't have a head coaching job.
Apparently Giannis really liked him, and after reports come out that Nurse was their main target for most of the bucks FO looks like Giannis won. Scratch that, turns out Nurse pulled out for the job.
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Post by haisan on May 28, 2023 8:10:30 GMT -5
I must admit, I'm curious to know more about "Nurse pulled out of the process..."
• Did he decide the Bucks weren't a good fit for him? • Did he realize he wasn't going to get the job? • Has he been promised something he likes more?
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Post by scully19 on May 28, 2023 16:05:42 GMT -5
Ya apparently there's rumor now he pulled because he knew he wasn't going to get it and I would guess you assistant getting the job over you isn't a good look. Who knows what the truth is though.
I thought nurse to Bucks was a done deal, so I guess he's got Phoenix or Philly to go to.
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Post by haisan on May 28, 2023 23:52:21 GMT -5
Nurse to Philly has a certain poetry to it. But I think Nurse with Durant has some serious potential. He’s at his best with serious basketball nerds.
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Post by scully19 on May 29, 2023 16:28:01 GMT -5
Nurse to Philly is done.
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Post by haisan on May 29, 2023 20:04:35 GMT -5
"Look, Embiid, this is how I prepared for you each game. And this is how I prayed you wouldn't respond to my moves..." I could see that being an effective pitch. As long as Nurse also talked about not playing Embiid and the starters playoff minutes for 82 regular season games...
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Post by sutureself on Aug 24, 2023 23:07:40 GMT -5
Thunder waived 2021 first rounder Usman Garuba and I'm surprised we haven't signed him immediately based on Raps' obsession with high motor, 3 and D (but with streaky 3) 6'8" international tweeners who can guard multiple positions but aren't that great at ball handling or defensive rebounding.
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Post by scully19 on Sept 15, 2023 16:11:18 GMT -5
Dumb trade thoughts... All this talk of Giannis potentially wanting out, I think there's something there to getting ahead of it. This is a 2 part thing. First, go get Milwaukee picks. New Orleans owns them the most. They own 1 to 4 of 2025, swap rights for 2026, and own 2027. Milwaukee has their own after that.
Second part would then be to trade Milwaukee back their picks in a trade for Giannis either next season or mid season, plus some of Toronto's picks, maybe all of them to only trade picks and no young good players. If you can't swing part b then you have a bunch of good assets.
So, Siakam for McCollum plus the picks? Probably we need to include picks back. Maybe instead of Jonas, Larry Nance and whatever else is needed to get to the money number. I would think McCollum makes the most sense because his contract is large and they can't have too many of those contacts in the new CBA.
Probably all of this won't work, just listened to the Giannis talk and wondered how Toronto could move up in likelihood to get him and this is my thought process that I don't think works anymore.
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Post by sandman on Sept 15, 2023 18:54:08 GMT -5
The only issue I see with that is we'd have Giannis and who else? Maybe Scottie left assuming you don't deal him to New Orleans?
I'm wondering if Giannis just wants to go to the spotlight... the LA's, New Yorks, Miami's and Chicago's of the world.
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Post by scully19 on Sept 15, 2023 20:56:32 GMT -5
Basically take this team, add Giannis, remove Siakam... I guess we would need salary out to match but maybe that's McCollum as well. All very unlikely I know.
Really only chance of getting Giannis is free agency if he gets there.
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Post by scully19 on Sept 24, 2023 21:50:15 GMT -5
So I find it doubtful but it sounds like it might be true that the Raptors are actually interested in Lillard. I would assume the trade would involve OG, Gradey, filler and picks? They have apparently made it clear no Scottie is happening so I'm ignoring those options.
I know his deal sucks, but a lineup of Lillard, Trent, Scottie, Pascal, Poeltl is honestly really nice for 2 to 3 years. From whoever isn't filter we would have Boucher, Precious, Schroeder, Koloko, McDaniels, Young and Flynn. That's honestly not bad. I would be pretty hyped for the next 3 years.
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Post by sutureself on Sept 25, 2023 0:20:12 GMT -5
So I find it doubtful but it sounds like it might be true that the Raptors are actually interested in Lillard. I would assume the trade would involve OG, Gradey, filler and picks? They have apparently made it clear no Scottie is happening so I'm ignoring those options. I know his deal sucks, but a lineup of Lillard, Trent, Scottie, Pascal, Poeltl is honestly really nice for 2 to 3 years. From whoever isn't filter we would have Boucher, Precious, Schroeder, Koloko, McDaniels, Young and Flynn. That's honestly not bad. I would be pretty hyped for the next 3 years. The only primary source I can find for this rumour is from Marc Stein's paywalled newsletter, which all the other reports link back to. I wonder if he's just throwing stuff out there to see if he can get more people to subscribe to his substack. It would be cool to see Raptors try to go for it rather than being stuck in no man's land. I can't imagine Lillard being excited about it though because Raptors are basically just the Eastern Conference version of the Blazers. We're a little bit better but it's hard to see it as a move to a contending team when we've only won one playoff series since the championship run, and that was against an injured Nets team where Garrett Temple and Timothé_Luwawu-Cabarrot were both starting and playing heavy minutes.
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Post by zugzwang on Sept 25, 2023 10:51:14 GMT -5
I just want to get in here to put myself on record and say I'm in favor of it. If it happens and doesn't work out, I can be lambasted.
No, I don't think it likely results in a title run, and I'm not saying Thrillard is Leonard, but if Masai can actually get the 'disgruntled superstar at the deadline' discount here, I think you gotta do it. We'll enjoy some great basketball and you never know how it could position us in the future. I mean what if Scotty makes the jump before Lillard declines? What if being the number 2 option again liberates Siakam? All what ifs, I know.
The fact that Thrillard's camp felt the need to put the word out that he won't play for Toronto specifically, makes me think Masai has been on the phone. Certainly that's not good to hear, but I think that's just a tactic by his agents to try to get him to his preferred destination. He's a professional.
Unfortunately, the reality is that the east is a beast right now so the timing isn't necessarily great. I at least see the argument for hoarding draft capital instead. But if there's a cheap superstar? You can't sleep on that.
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Post by freewheel on Sept 25, 2023 12:34:59 GMT -5
Im mostly ambivalent about it. I know the team as currently constructed is going nowhere. They are neither good nor bad. They have far too many redundant forwards and making some sort of trad to balance out the roster has been on the whiteboard for 2 years. Acquiring Lillard even if it is only to deal him again at a later date might be a way out of the quagmire they find themself in.
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Post by scully19 on Sept 25, 2023 13:59:42 GMT -5
So I find it doubtful but it sounds like it might be true that the Raptors are actually interested in Lillard. I would assume the trade would involve OG, Gradey, filler and picks? They have apparently made it clear no Scottie is happening so I'm ignoring those options. I know his deal sucks, but a lineup of Lillard, Trent, Scottie, Pascal, Poeltl is honestly really nice for 2 to 3 years. From whoever isn't filter we would have Boucher, Precious, Schroeder, Koloko, McDaniels, Young and Flynn. That's honestly not bad. I would be pretty hyped for the next 3 years. The only primary source I can find for this rumour is from Marc Stein's paywalled newsletter, which all the other reports link back to. I wonder if he's just throwing stuff out there to see if he can get more people to subscribe to his substack. It would be cool to see Raptors try to go for it rather than being stuck in no man's land. I can't imagine Lillard being excited about it though because Raptors are basically just the Eastern Conference version of the Blazers. We're a little bit better but it's hard to see it as a move to a contending team when we've only won one playoff series since the championship run, and that was against an injured Nets team where Garrett Temple and Timothé_Luwawu-Cabarrot were both starting and playing heavy minutes. I'm sure the Raptors are talking, there's been reports recently that teams are tired of talking to the Raptors because they essentially iron out the frameworks of a deal but with no intention of doing it but just to know the value of their guys. All it ever says is Toronto is in talks, and I'm sure that's worded that way to be vague but really means they've talked about it and not that anything is close. They have minimum reached out and done just that, find out what the actual cost would be, maybe work some sort of low ball offer that's competitive with the Heat and then wait and hope it works better for Portland. I wouldn't be shocked if it does, as is mentioned plenty of times most teams want nothing to do with Dame because if the contract mixed with the new CBA being so punishing. He basically gets you to terrible territory on his own. Phys you need to trade for him AND win now, pretty hard to match contracts, give enough value to interest Portland and be competitive enough for the trade to be worth it. I think a trade built around OG and Gradey and picks would do it but anything else is probably taking the Raptors too far from competitive.
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