Are we better with Gasol over JV?
Mar 27, 2019 10:08:53 GMT -5
Springer, Money_Ball, and 4 more like this
Post by scully19 on Mar 27, 2019 10:08:53 GMT -5
It's been a while now since the trade and at the time quite a few of us were wondering did we improve and would you even do this trade straight up JV for Gasol? Well it's been a little while and I thought it was a good time to give a quick review (also there was a good post about it which means we can use that information).
Starting with just straight up stats it looks like a pretty bad move. Jonas is killing it in Memphis at 19.3pts, 10.2reb, 2.1ast in 27.5min and is basically a cornerstone on offense getting more minutes and continue to be his highly efficient self. Gasol's stats are 9.2pts, 6.5rebs, 3.7ast in 24.2min. If this is just a look at stats it's game over Jonas is better. Even just comparing the numbers on the Raptors Jonas has higher numbers there as well.
Looking at the team dynamic, the eye test part and what has caught me right away. Not that what Gasol does is particularly eye catching but the way the team started playing almost right away was just a more pleasant ball movement type of offense.
When you look at team stats from there you see the swing in how the team now looks. The Raptors have gone up to 5th in passes per game, 5th is assists, 2nd in hockey assists, and 3rd in points off of assists. The team style and dynamic has clearly changed with this addition at C. This has translated to a huge bump in 3pt shooting. Remember when we were 25th or so in 3pt shooting, well since the trade we have been first in the league at 40.2%. You can see how passing this much leads to better shots and better percentages, so this all makes sense.
Funny this hasn't really translated to general offensively rating as they have gone down from 113.3 to 111.8. Not a terrible amount but it's something.
Defensive Rebounding was identified against Charlotte as a potential issue, but apparently that was a year long thing or just equals out as we actually secure a higher share of defensive rebounds since the trade, and seems to be largely because he ranks 2nd in the NBA and defensive boxouts (I didn't know this was even a stat) so he may not get the rebounds himself but he makes it easier for the team to get it.
Offensive rebounding we take a step back for sure. We rank 28th in putback points with Gasol compared to 14th with Val. This can likely also attest to why there is a drop off in offensive efficiency while having a better flowing offense with more 3s.
Then of course we have the bench in general, which took a hit as we lost depth in the 3 for 1 trade. While Norm can sufficiently step in for Delon, we already had Norm so in the moment it doesn't help us, but going further than Norm makes us worse.
Our only thing that really confirms the final trade is the playoffs. Is this offense with ball movement and a outlet valve going to play a big part? If you trap Kawhi or Lowry and Gasol/Siakam are outlets that you can throw them the ball and make a play it can kill any plans to double and trap. This wasn't possible (or wasn't looked at enough by Casey) a few years ago when the trap killed the Raptors because the whole offense was built on 2 players running everything. This will likely not be possible now. Depth also likely won't be a big problem either, we still have enough players to play a solid lineup and cutting the active squad down like most normal teams do in the playoffs will make that mean even less. Siakam at C is still a looming part of the team and could be the biggest reason to success in the playoffs for the Raptors with our 'Death lineup'.
Ultimately there is no conclusion to me on this one yet. We are more fun to watch for sure and I very much appreciate that in the present. Everything about this season though comes down to playoff success. DeMar for Kawhi, JV for Gasol, the whole Raptors future for the next 5 to 10 years all come down to how we far we get this year. That being said, I lean to Gasol improving the team even if he doesn't get the numbers himself.
Starting with just straight up stats it looks like a pretty bad move. Jonas is killing it in Memphis at 19.3pts, 10.2reb, 2.1ast in 27.5min and is basically a cornerstone on offense getting more minutes and continue to be his highly efficient self. Gasol's stats are 9.2pts, 6.5rebs, 3.7ast in 24.2min. If this is just a look at stats it's game over Jonas is better. Even just comparing the numbers on the Raptors Jonas has higher numbers there as well.
Looking at the team dynamic, the eye test part and what has caught me right away. Not that what Gasol does is particularly eye catching but the way the team started playing almost right away was just a more pleasant ball movement type of offense.
When you look at team stats from there you see the swing in how the team now looks. The Raptors have gone up to 5th in passes per game, 5th is assists, 2nd in hockey assists, and 3rd in points off of assists. The team style and dynamic has clearly changed with this addition at C. This has translated to a huge bump in 3pt shooting. Remember when we were 25th or so in 3pt shooting, well since the trade we have been first in the league at 40.2%. You can see how passing this much leads to better shots and better percentages, so this all makes sense.
Funny this hasn't really translated to general offensively rating as they have gone down from 113.3 to 111.8. Not a terrible amount but it's something.
Defensive Rebounding was identified against Charlotte as a potential issue, but apparently that was a year long thing or just equals out as we actually secure a higher share of defensive rebounds since the trade, and seems to be largely because he ranks 2nd in the NBA and defensive boxouts (I didn't know this was even a stat) so he may not get the rebounds himself but he makes it easier for the team to get it.
Offensive rebounding we take a step back for sure. We rank 28th in putback points with Gasol compared to 14th with Val. This can likely also attest to why there is a drop off in offensive efficiency while having a better flowing offense with more 3s.
Then of course we have the bench in general, which took a hit as we lost depth in the 3 for 1 trade. While Norm can sufficiently step in for Delon, we already had Norm so in the moment it doesn't help us, but going further than Norm makes us worse.
Our only thing that really confirms the final trade is the playoffs. Is this offense with ball movement and a outlet valve going to play a big part? If you trap Kawhi or Lowry and Gasol/Siakam are outlets that you can throw them the ball and make a play it can kill any plans to double and trap. This wasn't possible (or wasn't looked at enough by Casey) a few years ago when the trap killed the Raptors because the whole offense was built on 2 players running everything. This will likely not be possible now. Depth also likely won't be a big problem either, we still have enough players to play a solid lineup and cutting the active squad down like most normal teams do in the playoffs will make that mean even less. Siakam at C is still a looming part of the team and could be the biggest reason to success in the playoffs for the Raptors with our 'Death lineup'.
Ultimately there is no conclusion to me on this one yet. We are more fun to watch for sure and I very much appreciate that in the present. Everything about this season though comes down to playoff success. DeMar for Kawhi, JV for Gasol, the whole Raptors future for the next 5 to 10 years all come down to how we far we get this year. That being said, I lean to Gasol improving the team even if he doesn't get the numbers himself.
